Research Interests
Currently, my research is centered around studying the long-run determinants of regional and urban development, political fragmentation as well as social capital. Additionally, I am concerned with the origins, evolution and consequences of historical political institutions and in cities. The regional focus of my current research projects is central Europe. The historical periods I am especially interested in are the late-Middle Ages and the early-modern period, as these were periods of signifcant changes in all aspects of the economic and social life in which the ground was layed for the later European growth take-off during the industrialization.
Publications
Articles in Peer-Reviewed Journals
Illuminating the World Cup Effect: Night Lights Evidence from South Africa, 2018, Journal of Regional Sicence, 58(5), pp. 887-920 (with Gregor Pfeifer and Martyna Marczak)
This paper evaluates the economic impact of the $14 billion preparatory infrastructure investments for the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa. We use satellite data on night light luminosity at municipality and electoral district level as a proxy for economic development, applying synthetic control methods for estimation. For the World Cup municipality, we find significantly positive, short-run effects before the tournament, corresponding to a reduction of unemployment by 1.3 percentage points. At the electoral district level, we reveal distinct effect heterogeneity, where especially investments in transport infrastructure are shown to have long-lasting, positive effects, particularly in more rural areas.
Media Coverage: Sunday Times | htxt.africa | SciBraai.com | Press Report of the University of Hohenheim (in German)
(Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences, No-16-2016)
Online Appendices
Political Participation and Economic Development. Evidence from the Rise of Participative Political Institutions in the Late Medieval German Lands, 2018, European Review of Economic History, forthcoming
Participative political institutions in late medieval cities in the German Lands had the potential to impact city size and growth. The study confirms the positive effect on economic outcomes of inclusive political institutions in 282 cities, as found by other studies, but supports a more skeptical view of craft guilds. Craft guilds participating in the city council had zero or negative impact. Enfranchising citizens to elect the city government had a stable and robustly positive effect on city size and growth, but only during the medieval period. The effect of participatory institutions declines with age: they are prone to institutional degeneration and increased rent-seeking.
(accepted version on SSRN) (Replication Files)
Older version of the paper was entitled "Participative Political Institutions and City Development 800-1800"
(SSRN) (EHES Working Papers in Economic History, No. 73)
Does European Development Have Roman Roots? Evidence from the German Limes, 2017, Journal of Economic Growth, 22(3), pp. 313-349.
This paper contributes to the understanding of the long-run consequences of Roman rule on economic development. In ancient times, the area of contemporary Germany was divided into a Roman and non-Roman part. The study uses this division to test whether the formerly Roman part of Germany show a higher nighttime luminosity than the non-Roman part. This is done by using the Limes Germanicus wall as geographical discontinuity in a regression discontinuity design framework. The results indicate that economic development—as measured by luminosity—is indeed significantly and robustly larger in the formerly Roman part of Germany. The study identifies the persistence of the Roman road network until the present as an important factor causing this development advantage of the formerly Roman part of Germany both by fostering city growth and by allowing for a denser road network.
(older version at SSRN)
Older version of the paper was entitled "The Long Shadow of History. Roman Legacy and Economic Development---Evidence from the German Limes"
(SSRN) (Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences, No. 8-2015)
Summary of the article in German:
Augustus' langer Schatten. Warum der römische Teil Deutschlands noch heute besser entwickelt ist, 2018, Ifo Dresden berichtet, 2/2018.
Does Medieval Trade Still Matter? Historical Trade Centers, Agglomeration and Contemporary Economic Development, 2016, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 60, pp. 50-60.
This study establishes a link between medieval trade, agglomeration and contemporary regional development in ten European countries. It documents a statistically and economically significant positive relationship between prominent involvement in medieval trade and regional economic development today. The analysis indicates that a long-lasting effect of medieval trade on contemporary regional development is indeed transmitted via its effect on agglomeration and industry concentration. Further empirical analyses show that medieval trade positively influenced city development both during the medieval period and in the long run; they also reveal a robust connection between medieval city growth and contemporary regional agglomeration and industry concentration. This research thus highlights the long-run importance of medieval trade in shaping the development of cities as well as the contemporary spatial distribution of economic activity throughout Europe. The path-dependent regional development processes caused by medieval commercial activities help explain the observed persistent regional development differences across the European countries considered.
(last working paper version at SSRN) (FZID Discussion Papers No. 82-2013) (Medieval Trade Data)
Participative Political Institutions in Pre-Modern Europe. Introducing a New Database, 2016, Historical Methods. A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, 49(2), pp. 67-79.
This paper introduces and describes a new city-level data set on political institutions in pre-modern Europe. To be precise, it presents three variables reporting the prevalence of the different existing types of participative political institutions between 800 AD and 1800 AD in 104 cities in central Europe (Alsace-Lorrain, Austria, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands and the German-speaking parts of Switzerland). According to the historical studies consulted the three included measures (intensity of guild participation in the city council, participative election procedures and the existence of institutionalized burgher representation) represent the universe of existing political institutions in cities in this era. This new data set is potentially useful for advancing knowledge in various ongoing research debates about e.g., the impact of political institutions and regimes on city development, the effects of guilds, the relationship of economic and political institutions and the debate about the advantages or disadvantages of city states relative to territorial states.
(latest working paper version at SSRN) (Data Set)
Extended Participative Political Institutions Database
Extended version of the above dataset containing information on political institutions in 325 cities in the HRE. I added additional information for 201 cities in Austria, Germany and Switzerland that had more than 5000 but less than 10000 inhabitants at least once in the period between 800-1800. Those cities are included in the Bairoch et al. (1988) city population data set but not in Bosker et al. (2013) database. I also added information on cities in Poland that were part of the HRE in 1500 AD and included in the Bairoch et al. database (20). Coding for these additional cities is based on the "Deutsche Städtebuch" (German Handbook of Cities), the "Österreichische Städtebuch" (Austrian Handbook of Cities) as well as the Historical Encyclopedia of Switzerland.
(Data Set)
Die Entwicklung des Lebensstandards im Dritten Reich. Eine glücksökonomische Perspektive, 2013, Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte (Economic History Yearbook) 54(1), pp. 89-110.
The goal of this paper is to provide an explanation for the remarkable difference in the contemporary Germans positive self-assessment of their living conditions and the development of the most important economic welfare indicators (like GDP or consumption per capita) during the Third Reich. To explain this discrepancy, findings of the new research field of happiness economics are applied to the peacetime of the Third Reich to analyze the development of the standard of living in this period. First, the theory of adaption and aspiration is used to explain the growing satisfaction of the Germans after the Great Depression. In the second step, based on current life satisfaction studies, the development of the most important economic determinants of happiness during the 1930s is examined.
(earlier working paper version)
Working Papers
Savings Banks and the Industrial Revolution in Prussia. Supporting Regional Development with Public Financial Institutions, Mimeo (with Sibylle Lehmann-Hasemeyer)
We show that smaller, regional public financial intermediaries significantly contributed to industrial development, using a new data set of the foundation year and location of Prussian savings banks. This extends the banking-growth nexus beyond its traditional focus on the large universal banks, to savings banks. The saving banks had an impact through the financing of public infrastructure, such as railways, and new private factories. Saving banks were public financial intermediaries, so our results strongly suggest that state intervention can be very successful, particularly in regions in the early stages of industrial development when capital requirements are manageable, and access to international capital markets is limited.
(Older Version: CEPR Discussion Paper No. 12500)
You Reap What You Know: Origins and Dynamics of State Capacity, 2018, Mimeo (with Thilo R. Huning)
To better understand the role of taxation for the emergence of states, this article outlines how geographically induced information asymmetries caused inefficient taxation, and hence outmigration, uprisings, and rent-seeking, but also urbanization, and allowed some states to develop state capacity while others failed. We propose a geographic index of information costs, observability of agricultural output, to test if a more complicated geography prohibited states to tax effectively. Our case study is the Holy Roman Empire, which had a relatively homogeneous institutional framework, state of technology, and ethnic composition across hundreds of observed states, for over 500 years. We find a robust link between observability and states' tax capacity, their size, and their survival.
(An older version entitled "Lord of the Lemons: Origins and Dynamics of State Capacity" is available as Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences, No. 22-2017)
Previous Versions: (EHES Working Papers in Economic History, No. 101) (BEHL Working Paper No. 2016-05)
Origins of Political Change. Structural vs. Exogenous Factors as Cause of the Late Medieval Guild Revolts, 2015, Mimeo.
This study investigates the origins of guild revolts and guild participation in the government of late medieval central European cities. It finds that both structural factors, i.e. the prosperity of proto-industry as well as exogenous events like the agricultural crisis and the Black Death were important factors triggering the outbreak of the revolts and the turn towards more participative political institutions in the cities. Interestingly, important medieval trade cities had a lower probability of guild participation indicating that not economic institutions and prosperity per se is the decisive point but rather that formerly poor groups of citizens like craftsmen profit from the economic upswing. Hence, inclusive growth was the key for the emergence of participative political institutions in late medieval cities. At last, the study also finds evidence for the existence of spatial spillovers from the developments in neighboring cities implying that strategic considerations played a role in the spread of participative political institutions.
(SSRN)
Older version of the paper was entitled "Origins of Political Change. Evidence from the Late-Medieval Guild Revolts"
(EHES Working Papers in Economic History, No. 69)
Other Publications (in German)
Die Bedeutung von Vertrauen für Globalisierung und internationale Integration, in: Kollmer-von Oheim-Loup, G., Lehmann-Hasemeyer, S. and van de Kerkoff, S. (2017). Ökonomie und Ethik – Beiträge aus Wirtschaft und Geschichte. (Stuttgarter Historische Studien zur Landes- und Wirtschaftsgeschichte, Bd. 23), S. 265-294. Thorbecke Verlag, Ostfildern.
Older version was published in English and entitled "Why It Matters What People Think. Colonization, Legal Origins and the Deep Roots of Trust"
(SSRN) (FZID Discussion Paper No. 52-2012)
Schlüsselbranche Maschinenbau. Ein mikrodatenbasierte Analyse, 2014, IAW Policy Reports No. 10. (with Raimund Krumm)
Work in Progress
The Fetters of Inheritance: The Effect of Agricultural Inheritance Rules on Spatial Inequalities and Regional Development (with Thilo Huning and Sibylle Lehmann-Hasemeyer) draft in preparation
University Reforms, Regional Human Capital and Economic Development. Evidence from 19th Century Germany (with Sebastian Blesse and Alexander Donges)
Project funded by the DFG (as part of PP 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour"):
Origins and Consequences of Regional Identity: Evidence from Historical Differences in Political Instability and Fragmentation among German States. (Kai Gehring and Thilo Huning are project partners)
Currently, my research is centered around studying the long-run determinants of regional and urban development, political fragmentation as well as social capital. Additionally, I am concerned with the origins, evolution and consequences of historical political institutions and in cities. The regional focus of my current research projects is central Europe. The historical periods I am especially interested in are the late-Middle Ages and the early-modern period, as these were periods of signifcant changes in all aspects of the economic and social life in which the ground was layed for the later European growth take-off during the industrialization.
Publications
Articles in Peer-Reviewed Journals
Illuminating the World Cup Effect: Night Lights Evidence from South Africa, 2018, Journal of Regional Sicence, 58(5), pp. 887-920 (with Gregor Pfeifer and Martyna Marczak)
This paper evaluates the economic impact of the $14 billion preparatory infrastructure investments for the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa. We use satellite data on night light luminosity at municipality and electoral district level as a proxy for economic development, applying synthetic control methods for estimation. For the World Cup municipality, we find significantly positive, short-run effects before the tournament, corresponding to a reduction of unemployment by 1.3 percentage points. At the electoral district level, we reveal distinct effect heterogeneity, where especially investments in transport infrastructure are shown to have long-lasting, positive effects, particularly in more rural areas.
Media Coverage: Sunday Times | htxt.africa | SciBraai.com | Press Report of the University of Hohenheim (in German)
(Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences, No-16-2016)
Online Appendices
Political Participation and Economic Development. Evidence from the Rise of Participative Political Institutions in the Late Medieval German Lands, 2018, European Review of Economic History, forthcoming
Participative political institutions in late medieval cities in the German Lands had the potential to impact city size and growth. The study confirms the positive effect on economic outcomes of inclusive political institutions in 282 cities, as found by other studies, but supports a more skeptical view of craft guilds. Craft guilds participating in the city council had zero or negative impact. Enfranchising citizens to elect the city government had a stable and robustly positive effect on city size and growth, but only during the medieval period. The effect of participatory institutions declines with age: they are prone to institutional degeneration and increased rent-seeking.
(accepted version on SSRN) (Replication Files)
Older version of the paper was entitled "Participative Political Institutions and City Development 800-1800"
(SSRN) (EHES Working Papers in Economic History, No. 73)
Does European Development Have Roman Roots? Evidence from the German Limes, 2017, Journal of Economic Growth, 22(3), pp. 313-349.
This paper contributes to the understanding of the long-run consequences of Roman rule on economic development. In ancient times, the area of contemporary Germany was divided into a Roman and non-Roman part. The study uses this division to test whether the formerly Roman part of Germany show a higher nighttime luminosity than the non-Roman part. This is done by using the Limes Germanicus wall as geographical discontinuity in a regression discontinuity design framework. The results indicate that economic development—as measured by luminosity—is indeed significantly and robustly larger in the formerly Roman part of Germany. The study identifies the persistence of the Roman road network until the present as an important factor causing this development advantage of the formerly Roman part of Germany both by fostering city growth and by allowing for a denser road network.
(older version at SSRN)
Older version of the paper was entitled "The Long Shadow of History. Roman Legacy and Economic Development---Evidence from the German Limes"
(SSRN) (Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences, No. 8-2015)
Summary of the article in German:
Augustus' langer Schatten. Warum der römische Teil Deutschlands noch heute besser entwickelt ist, 2018, Ifo Dresden berichtet, 2/2018.
Does Medieval Trade Still Matter? Historical Trade Centers, Agglomeration and Contemporary Economic Development, 2016, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 60, pp. 50-60.
This study establishes a link between medieval trade, agglomeration and contemporary regional development in ten European countries. It documents a statistically and economically significant positive relationship between prominent involvement in medieval trade and regional economic development today. The analysis indicates that a long-lasting effect of medieval trade on contemporary regional development is indeed transmitted via its effect on agglomeration and industry concentration. Further empirical analyses show that medieval trade positively influenced city development both during the medieval period and in the long run; they also reveal a robust connection between medieval city growth and contemporary regional agglomeration and industry concentration. This research thus highlights the long-run importance of medieval trade in shaping the development of cities as well as the contemporary spatial distribution of economic activity throughout Europe. The path-dependent regional development processes caused by medieval commercial activities help explain the observed persistent regional development differences across the European countries considered.
(last working paper version at SSRN) (FZID Discussion Papers No. 82-2013) (Medieval Trade Data)
Participative Political Institutions in Pre-Modern Europe. Introducing a New Database, 2016, Historical Methods. A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, 49(2), pp. 67-79.
This paper introduces and describes a new city-level data set on political institutions in pre-modern Europe. To be precise, it presents three variables reporting the prevalence of the different existing types of participative political institutions between 800 AD and 1800 AD in 104 cities in central Europe (Alsace-Lorrain, Austria, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands and the German-speaking parts of Switzerland). According to the historical studies consulted the three included measures (intensity of guild participation in the city council, participative election procedures and the existence of institutionalized burgher representation) represent the universe of existing political institutions in cities in this era. This new data set is potentially useful for advancing knowledge in various ongoing research debates about e.g., the impact of political institutions and regimes on city development, the effects of guilds, the relationship of economic and political institutions and the debate about the advantages or disadvantages of city states relative to territorial states.
(latest working paper version at SSRN) (Data Set)
Extended Participative Political Institutions Database
Extended version of the above dataset containing information on political institutions in 325 cities in the HRE. I added additional information for 201 cities in Austria, Germany and Switzerland that had more than 5000 but less than 10000 inhabitants at least once in the period between 800-1800. Those cities are included in the Bairoch et al. (1988) city population data set but not in Bosker et al. (2013) database. I also added information on cities in Poland that were part of the HRE in 1500 AD and included in the Bairoch et al. database (20). Coding for these additional cities is based on the "Deutsche Städtebuch" (German Handbook of Cities), the "Österreichische Städtebuch" (Austrian Handbook of Cities) as well as the Historical Encyclopedia of Switzerland.
(Data Set)
Die Entwicklung des Lebensstandards im Dritten Reich. Eine glücksökonomische Perspektive, 2013, Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte (Economic History Yearbook) 54(1), pp. 89-110.
The goal of this paper is to provide an explanation for the remarkable difference in the contemporary Germans positive self-assessment of their living conditions and the development of the most important economic welfare indicators (like GDP or consumption per capita) during the Third Reich. To explain this discrepancy, findings of the new research field of happiness economics are applied to the peacetime of the Third Reich to analyze the development of the standard of living in this period. First, the theory of adaption and aspiration is used to explain the growing satisfaction of the Germans after the Great Depression. In the second step, based on current life satisfaction studies, the development of the most important economic determinants of happiness during the 1930s is examined.
(earlier working paper version)
Working Papers
Savings Banks and the Industrial Revolution in Prussia. Supporting Regional Development with Public Financial Institutions, Mimeo (with Sibylle Lehmann-Hasemeyer)
We show that smaller, regional public financial intermediaries significantly contributed to industrial development, using a new data set of the foundation year and location of Prussian savings banks. This extends the banking-growth nexus beyond its traditional focus on the large universal banks, to savings banks. The saving banks had an impact through the financing of public infrastructure, such as railways, and new private factories. Saving banks were public financial intermediaries, so our results strongly suggest that state intervention can be very successful, particularly in regions in the early stages of industrial development when capital requirements are manageable, and access to international capital markets is limited.
(Older Version: CEPR Discussion Paper No. 12500)
You Reap What You Know: Origins and Dynamics of State Capacity, 2018, Mimeo (with Thilo R. Huning)
To better understand the role of taxation for the emergence of states, this article outlines how geographically induced information asymmetries caused inefficient taxation, and hence outmigration, uprisings, and rent-seeking, but also urbanization, and allowed some states to develop state capacity while others failed. We propose a geographic index of information costs, observability of agricultural output, to test if a more complicated geography prohibited states to tax effectively. Our case study is the Holy Roman Empire, which had a relatively homogeneous institutional framework, state of technology, and ethnic composition across hundreds of observed states, for over 500 years. We find a robust link between observability and states' tax capacity, their size, and their survival.
(An older version entitled "Lord of the Lemons: Origins and Dynamics of State Capacity" is available as Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences, No. 22-2017)
Previous Versions: (EHES Working Papers in Economic History, No. 101) (BEHL Working Paper No. 2016-05)
Origins of Political Change. Structural vs. Exogenous Factors as Cause of the Late Medieval Guild Revolts, 2015, Mimeo.
This study investigates the origins of guild revolts and guild participation in the government of late medieval central European cities. It finds that both structural factors, i.e. the prosperity of proto-industry as well as exogenous events like the agricultural crisis and the Black Death were important factors triggering the outbreak of the revolts and the turn towards more participative political institutions in the cities. Interestingly, important medieval trade cities had a lower probability of guild participation indicating that not economic institutions and prosperity per se is the decisive point but rather that formerly poor groups of citizens like craftsmen profit from the economic upswing. Hence, inclusive growth was the key for the emergence of participative political institutions in late medieval cities. At last, the study also finds evidence for the existence of spatial spillovers from the developments in neighboring cities implying that strategic considerations played a role in the spread of participative political institutions.
(SSRN)
Older version of the paper was entitled "Origins of Political Change. Evidence from the Late-Medieval Guild Revolts"
(EHES Working Papers in Economic History, No. 69)
Other Publications (in German)
Die Bedeutung von Vertrauen für Globalisierung und internationale Integration, in: Kollmer-von Oheim-Loup, G., Lehmann-Hasemeyer, S. and van de Kerkoff, S. (2017). Ökonomie und Ethik – Beiträge aus Wirtschaft und Geschichte. (Stuttgarter Historische Studien zur Landes- und Wirtschaftsgeschichte, Bd. 23), S. 265-294. Thorbecke Verlag, Ostfildern.
Older version was published in English and entitled "Why It Matters What People Think. Colonization, Legal Origins and the Deep Roots of Trust"
(SSRN) (FZID Discussion Paper No. 52-2012)
Schlüsselbranche Maschinenbau. Ein mikrodatenbasierte Analyse, 2014, IAW Policy Reports No. 10. (with Raimund Krumm)
Work in Progress
The Fetters of Inheritance: The Effect of Agricultural Inheritance Rules on Spatial Inequalities and Regional Development (with Thilo Huning and Sibylle Lehmann-Hasemeyer) draft in preparation
University Reforms, Regional Human Capital and Economic Development. Evidence from 19th Century Germany (with Sebastian Blesse and Alexander Donges)
Project funded by the DFG (as part of PP 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour"):
Origins and Consequences of Regional Identity: Evidence from Historical Differences in Political Instability and Fragmentation among German States. (Kai Gehring and Thilo Huning are project partners)